Golden jackals exploit a ‘human shield’ to evade wolves in their spreading across Europe
New research has revealed that grey wolves are the main factor limiting the expansion of golden jackals in Europe. However, human activity is importantly reducing this suppressive effect of top predators. In combination with human-induced climate warming and land-use changes, this makes future bright for the mesocarnivore. The study published this week in journal Nature Ecology & Evolution predicts that jackals could colonize up to 75% of the continent, almost six times their currently occupied area.
People can impact wildlife in many ways. While direct effects have been studied extensively, less is known about the indirect effects, such as human interference with interactions among different animal species. To better understand these impacts, researchers from 13 European countries studied the ongoing expansion of medium-sized carnivore, the golden jackal. Previous research has suggested several potential explanations behind one of the most dramatic range shifts among native mammals: climate warming, land cover change and the absence of predators. Wolves, which can outcompete and prey on jackals, were once widespread across Europe, while jackals were restricted to few coastal regions at the southeastern fringes of the continent. But the sides started turning during the 19th century, following the continent-wide persecution of wolves.
The new study is based on jackal howling survey data collected from 2001 to 2017 at 8,991 locations distributed across Central and Southeastern Europe. Results show that shorter snow-cover duration, intermediate forest cover and proximity to water bodies are all associated with jackal presence. But wolf presence has the strongest impact: jackals are most likely to be present where wolves are absent and least likely in the core areas of stable wolf packs. This lends support to the mesopredator-release hypothesis indicating that the historic decline of wolves in Europe was the main trigger for jackal spreading on this continent.
But the story does not end here. Results further shown that human presence can modulate jackal-wolf interactions through a process known as ‘human shield’. Researchers observed that jackals generally avoid human settlements in regions where wolves are absent. But where wolves are present, jackal behaviour changes as they select areas near people.
"This study was only possible through a long-term collaborative effort involving researchers across Europe who collected standardized field data over many years. Bringing these data together allowed us to uncover the continental-scale dynamics shaping jackal expansion and confirm that wolves are the main natural constraint on golden jackal expansion in Europe. But a human-shield effect reduces wolf pressure and allows jackals to persist," highlighted Dr. Nathan Ranc from INRAE (France), the first and corresponding author of the study.
Based on these insights, researchers also developed a model that predicts the extent of future jackal expansion. They found that 75% of the total area of the continent is environmentally suitable for this species. This is 6-times larger than the area jackals currently occupy, with large areas of Western Europe, where jackals were first detected in recent years, predicted to be very suitable for this species, especially in France and in the Iberian Peninsula.
Further jackal expansion will also depend on the future of wolf dynamics in Europe. Following decades of persecution and a historical bottleneck around the 1970s, wolves are now recolonizing large parts of their historic distribution in Europe. This has already reduced the potential for jackal expansion in a considerable part of Europe.
“Our study provides evidence that the recovery of apex predators can act as a nature-based solution to regulate expanding mesocarnivore populations. However, results suggest that to retain such ecological effects, apex predators must reach ecologically-effective densities and sufficient social stability. This can be a considerable challenge in human-dominated landscapes like Europe and often requires proactive management and effective conflict-prevention measures to facilitate their coexistence and reduce social conflicts,” commented Dr. Miha Krofel from the University of Ljubljana (Slovenia), who was the senior author of the study.
Link to the original scientific article:
Ranc, N. et al. 2026. Human shielding from wolves facilitates jackal expansion across Europe. – Nature Ecology & Evolution. doi: 10.1038/s41559-026-03060-y
Contact for further information:
Nathan Ranc & Miha Krofel
Figures:
FIGURE 1: After being confined to the fringes of Southeastern Europe for millennia, jackals have recently expanded across large part of the continent, reaching as far west as Spain and as far north as the Arctic. New research suggests that their spread is far from complete. Photo: Martin Steenhaut.
FIGURE 2: International team of researchers from 13 countries used playback recordings of howling jackals and recorded their responses at nearly 9000 locations to uncover the factors that influence their distribution in the Continental Europe. Photo: Miha Krofel.
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